User:Guy Bukzi Montag/sandbox/WikiProject Statistics

Welcome to WikiProject Statistics!

The Asphalt games (in particular Asphalt 8) have introduced many features that heavily depend on chance and probabilities, but the rules and mechanisms behind those elements mostly remain secret. That's part of the game. But it's possible to find out more about those hidden rules than the game openly reveals.

Therefore, the aims of this project are:
 * 1) To observe and analyze random processes in the games and make predictions based on statistics, probability theory and combinatorics in order to help players plan their game strategically.
 * 2) To verify or debunk common "myths" based on players' own observations.
 * 3) To improve 's general coverage of statistics and related topics in order to provide a solid base for players to extend their knowledge and make their own calculations.

Note: Point 1 and 2 require statistical data. As there is no known source providing a valid Asphalt-related statistical base, this project includes original research as far as the collection of statistical data is concerned. This is contrary to common wiki policies (cf. No original research), but considered necessary due to the lack of other sources.

Observed processes

 * Pro Kit Box (process | gameplay element) – total sample size: cards
 * Daily ads (process | gameplay element) – total sample size: ads
 * Daily Tasks (process | gameplay element) – total sample size: tasks

New articles

 * Gambler's fallacy How your mind plays tricks on you when it comes to randomness.
 * Law of large numbers The principle behind drop rates, or: Why a box seldom grants what drop rates imply.

Reports

 * Pro Kit Box statistics: average frequencies Sortable tables indicating which box grants most of a specific card.
 * Pro Kit Box statistics: minimum card requirements Sortable tables with the minimum number of cards required to obtain a specific card with a 90 % probability.
 * Pro Kit Boxes with hidden rules Undocumented rules in Pro Kit Boxes found with statistical methods.

Studies

 * Drivetrain is always limited during events (Asphalt myth) Does Asphalt 8 grant less Drivetrain cards during events?
 * V8 drop rate study (ongoing) Four common player beliefs tested.

Boxes needing more data
The following boxes need more data for reliable predictions. Help us grow the statistical base for these (and other) boxes! The Adding data page shows how.

General
Main topics Images
 * Category:Statistics
 * Category:Probability theory
 * Category:Combinatorics
 * Category:Statistical data images

Tracking categories
General Sample size Data contributions