Talk:Daily Kit Box/@comment-35409168-20190811101915/@comment-34918040-20190811140308

@ Hsawaknow3:

The reason for the difference is most probably the different sample size. The game doesn't provide drop rates for specific cards, so these values are inferred statistically.


 * We only have 75 cards from Specialist Kit Boxes so far, one of which was a CRE. 1/75 = 1.33 %
 * We currently have 870 cards from Champion Kit Boxes, one of which was a CRE. 1/870 = 0.11 %

It may have been pure luck that the player got a CRE from the Specialist Kit Box, and pure bad luck that the the players who opened Champion Kit Boxes didn't get more CREs.

On the other hand, Gameloft often increases or decreases drop rates for certain cards deliberately, so it is possible that the Specialist Kit Box does grant more CREs than the Champion Kit Box.

That's why it is important to get the data of as much openened boxes as possible, because the larger the sample size, the more reliable the outcomes are. This is called the law of large numbers.

By the way, the little lights next to the boxes in the tables indicate if the sample size is still critical (red light), acceptable (yellow), good (green) or excellent (blue), so you've got a quick orientation how trustworthy the values are. Hovering the mouse pointer over the lights shows the exact sample size.

More boxes are on Average frequencies.