Talk:2020 Lunar New Year Update/@comment-44309616-20200210050545/@comment-34918040-20200212124141

@ TheGoldenRetrieverAU:

Yes, it's all statistics, indeed. I've just had a look at the current drop rates of 6.69 % for 8 coins. Given this probability, it would take you at least trials to get 8 coins with a certainty of 90 % (see Required trials percent for the formula).

So yes, 35 trials without 8 coins is not unusual&mdash;you've just been one of the unlucky 10 %. For me, it was different this time; I got 8 coins within the first 10 or 15 trials.


 * " I also think it has something to do with getting enough coins after 3 days to get the car so you can race the festival cup."

Yes. They calculate with the law of large numbers. That's why the start the TLEs only after a certain time when they can be sure that most of the players will have obtained enough coins to get the car.