Talk:Fast-Lane Festival/@comment-34918040-20190322091924/@comment-34918040-20190323202704

@ KoninaElena:

You are right, this is excellent!

In my sheet, all engines are listed in alphabetical order, but I marked them with your colours. The image below shows all Deluxe Bundles without yours, but the result is the same: There's one item of all four groups in every box.



As for the second part of your conjecture, I tend to agree and disagree at the same time. I have already noticed that, for example, the Engine and the Mid-Tech card of the always seem to appear at place 6 or 7, but I didn't pay closer attention. In an case, the order of a box openiing is not always completely random.

But: As cards of the same kind are grouped together, it's not possible to determine where in the "original" drawing order they would have appeared, namely in bigger boxes with 30 or more items.

And: There still seems to be a specific probability assigned to each card. Below is an overview of all Deluxe Bundles (this time including your Fast-Lane Bundles), ordered by frequency.



Let's take the bike group: It's the smallest of the four, it contains only 4 items. As it's guaranteed that one item of this group is drawn, the expected value of each item from this group should be 25 % ⋅ 25 % = 6.25 % (1 of 4 groups, 1 of 4 items).

But the real distribution of the bike group is:

9.29 % Four-Stroke 7.14 % Forced Four-Stroke 5.00 % Pro Tech 3.57 % V-Twin

Of course there are still deviations due to the relativel small sample size, but the difference between 9.29 and 3.57 can already regarded as significant.

Unfortunately, I have 1.591 boxes in my database now, but i didn't write down the place each item had in the order of the drawn items. :-(

But I'm sure you've found an important mechanism there; it's quite certain that other boxes have it, too.