Changes: Asphalt Wiki:WikiProject Statistics/Myths

Latest revision as of 15:08, 28 January 2020

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WikiProject Statistics

This page contains a list of common "myths" based on players' own observations, together with links to pages where the topics have been dealt with.

Important preliminary remarks

Average relative frequency (%) of V8 Engines per Box
		Name
		Advanced Biker Kit	0.00
		Engine Box 1-5	10.33
		Finish Line Box	2.13
		Multiplayer Pro Box	0.65
		Optimal Shuffle Box	0.39
		Optimal Split Box	0.32
		Parts Box 1-5	0.00
		Random Box 1-5	1.03
		Rookie Biker Kit	0.00
		Tech Box 1-5	0.00

Most of the "myths" result from a player's personal feeling that the game does not grant certain cards deliberately, especially when the player "needs" them. Before proceeding, it is therefore important to get the dimensions right.

As V8 Engines are needed by many cars and in large amounts, the frequency of this card is one of the most debated topics among players. The table to the right shows the current average relative frequencies of V8 Engines in the most common boxes.

Most of the boxes in the table have a sufficiently large sample size so that the shown frequencies can be assumed to be close to the expected values (=drop rates). For example, a player can expect that on average, 2.13 % of the cards from Finish Line Boxes are V8 Engines.

The weighted average of all drop rates from the boxes to the right is 1.69 %. The weighted average takes into account that some boxes are more frequent than others (with the weights based on WikiProject Statistics data of 16,554 cards from these boxes since the last changes). This has the following implications:

On average, only 1.69 cards out of 100 will be V8 Engines.
A player can even have a streak of 197 cards without V8 Engines. If 3 V8 Engines follow, the drop rate is still the same.
Even then, it is not sure that the 3 V8 Engines will follow. The law of large numbers does not guarantee that. (See gambler's fallacy)
Another aspect is the number of cards needed to get a certain amount of V8 Engines. Supposed that a car needs 50 V8 Engines, a player would have to reveal 2,959 cards to obtain an average (still not guaranteed) of 50 V8 Engines.
A player needs a minimum of 136 cards to get at least 1 (one!) V8 Engine with a probability of 90 %. See Minimum card requirements for a detailed overview.

All this has to be considered if players think that they get "unfair" amounts of desired cards. The above-mentioned 2,959 cards are not an exception. They are the rule.

List of myths

Icon explanation:

Verified and true
Test ongoing
Proven wrong

Claims with no icon have not yet been investigated.

Cards come to those who have them.

This has been proven wrong twice, for engines and for part cards. There is no "golden rule" that players have to keep a certain number of specific cards they need most. See V8 drop rate study for V8 Engines and the blog entry Asphalt 8 Myths: Cards Come to Those Who Have Them for part cards.

Cards for events are always limited.

This has been proven wrong twice, for engines and for Drivetrain. The game does not grant less cards needed by the featured vehicle during events. See V8 drop rate study for V8 Engines and Drivetrain is always limited during events (Asphalt myth) for Drivetrain.

Drop rates are dependent on a player's garage.

This has been proven wrong. The game does not analyze a player's garage and decrease the drop rates for needed cards to make it harder to pro vehicles. See V8 drop rate study.

Drop rates decrease for recently upgraded vehicles.

This has been proven wrong. There is no such algorithm that withholds cards a player may need to further upgrade recently upgraded vehicles. See V8 drop rate study.

Electric Engines are much more frequent than Serial Racing Engines.

This is true. Electric and Hybrid Engines are nearly as frequent as common engines. See Rarity: "Felt" drop rates

V8 and i4 Engine cards are so rare, they shouldn't be of common rarity.

This is wrong. V8 and i4 Engines are actually among the most granted engines in the entire game. See Rarity: "Felt" drop rates

V12 Engines are almost impossible to get.

This is wrong. The frequency of V12 Engines is typical for legendary engines. See Rarity: "Felt" drop rates

@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
+{{Tabs WikiProject Statistics}}
-<noinclude>{{ {{NAMESPACE}}:{{BASEPAGENAME}}/Tabs}}</noinclude>
 __FORCETOC__
-[[File:WikiProject_Statistics.png|right]]This page contains a list of common "myths" based on players' own observations, together with links to pages where the topics have been dealt with.
+This page contains a list of common "myths" based on players' own observations, together with links to pages where the topics have been dealt with.
 == '''Important preliminary remarks''' ==
-{{A8box table header statistics mini|engine=v8|
+{{A8box table header statistics mini|margin=0 0 1em 1em|engine=v8|title=Average relative frequency (%)<br>of V8 Engines per Box|
-{{Daily Kit Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
+{{Advanced Biker Kit|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Engine Box 1-5|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
-{{Extra Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Finish Line Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Multiplayer Pro Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Optimal Shuffle Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Optimal Split Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
+{{Parts Box 1-5|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 {{Random Box 1-5|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
-{{Starter Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
+{{Rookie Biker Kit|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
-{{Ultra Box|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
+{{Tech Box 1-5|style=table mini|engine=v8}}
 }}
 Most of the "myths" result from a player's personal feeling that the game does not grant certain cards deliberately, especially when the player "needs" them. Before proceeding, it is therefore important to get the dimensions right.
-As V8 Engines are needed by many cars and in large amounts, the frequency of this card is one of the most debated topics among players. The table to the right shows the current average [[relative frequency|relative frequencies]] of V8 Engines in the most common boxes. [[Tech Box]]es have been excluded because they are guaranteed to grant no V8 Engine.
+As V8 Engines are needed by many cars and in large amounts, the frequency of this card is one of the most debated topics among players. The table to the right shows the current average [[relative frequency|relative frequencies]] of V8 Engines in the most common boxes.
 Most of the boxes in the table have a sufficiently large [[sample size]] so that the shown frequencies can be assumed to be close to the [[expected value]]s (=[[drop rate]]s). For example, a player can expect that on average, {{nobr|{{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} %}} of the cards from Finish Line Boxes are V8 Engines.
-The [[Arithmetic mean|average]] of all drop rates from the boxes to the right is '''{{nobr|{{#expr:({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10 round 2}} %}}'''. This has the following implications:
+The [[weighted arithmetic mean|weighted average]] of all drop rates from the boxes to the right is '''{{nobr|{{common boxes a8|#sv82}} %}}'''. The weighted average takes into account that some boxes are more frequent than others (with the weights based on [[WikiProject Statistics]] data of {{common boxes a8|cards}} cards from these boxes since the last changes). This has the following implications:
-* On average, only '''{{plural|{{#expr:({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10 round 2}}|card out of 100''' will be a V8 Engine|cards out of 100''' will be V8 Engines}}.
+* On average, only '''{{plural|{{common boxes a8|#sv82}}|card out of 100''' will be a V8 Engine|cards out of 100''' will be V8 Engines}}.
-* A player can even have a streak of {{#expr:200 - 2*({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10 round 0}} cards without V8 Engines. If {{plural|{{#expr:({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10 *2 round 0}}|V8 Engine}} follow, the drop rate is still the same.
+* A player can even have a streak of {{#expr:200 - 2*({{common boxes a8|#sv82}}) round 0}} cards without V8 Engines. If {{plural|{{#expr:{{common boxes a8|#sv82}} *2 round 0}}|V8 Engine follows|V8 Engines follow}}, the drop rate is still the same.
-* Even then, it is not sure that the {{plural|{{#expr:({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10 *2 round 0}}|V8 Engine}} will follow. The [[law of large numbers]] does not guarantee that. (See [[gambler's fallacy]])
+* Even then, it is not sure that the {{plural|{{#expr:{{common boxes a8|#sv82}} *2 round 0}}|V8 Engine}} will follow. The [[law of large numbers]] does not guarantee that. (See [[gambler's fallacy]])
-* Another aspect is the number of cards needed to get a certain amount of V8 Engines. Supposed that a car needs 50 V8 Engines, a player would have to reveal '''{{formatnum:{{#expr:ceil(50 / (({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10) * 100)}}}} cards''' to obtain an '''average''' (still not guaranteed) of 50 V8 Engines.
+* Another aspect is the number of cards needed to get a certain amount of V8 Engines. Supposed that a car needs 50 V8 Engines, a player would have to reveal '''{{formatnum:{{#expr:ceil(50 / {{common boxes a8|#sv82}} * 100)}}}} cards''' to obtain an '''average''' (still not guaranteed) of 50 V8 Engines.
-* A player needs a minimum of '''{{required trials percent|p={{#expr:({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10}}|pmin=95|ceil}} cards''' to get at least 1 (one!) V8 Engine with a probability of {{nobr|95 %}}. See [[Pro Kit Box statistics: minimum card requirements]] for a detailed overview.
+* A player needs a minimum of '''{{required trials percent|p={{common boxes a8|#sv82}}|pmin=90|ceil}} cards''' to get at least 1 (one!) V8 Engine with a probability of {{nobr|90 %}}. See [[Pro Kit Box statistics: minimum card requirements|Minimum card requirements]] for a detailed overview.
-All this has to be considered if players think that they get "unfair" amounts of desired cards. The above-mentioned {{formatnum:{{#expr:ceil(50 / (({{Daily Kit Box|#sv82}} + {{Engine Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Extra Box|#sv82}} + {{Finish Line Box|#sv82}} + {{Multiplayer Pro Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Shuffle Box|#sv82}} + {{Optimal Split Box|#sv82}} + {{Random Box 1-5|#sv82}} + {{Starter Box|#sv82}} + {{Ultra Box|#sv82}}) / 10) * 100)}}}} cards are not an exception. They are the rule.
+All this has to be considered if players think that they get "unfair" amounts of desired cards. The above-mentioned {{formatnum:{{#expr:ceil(50 / {{common boxes a8|#sv82}} * 100)}}}} cards are not an exception. They are the rule.
-== '''List of myths''' ==
+== List of myths ==
 Icon explanation:
 * {{Icon status|ok}} Verified and true
+* {{Icon status|acceptable}} Test ongoing
 * {{Icon status|critical}} Proven wrong
 Claims with no icon have not yet been investigated.
-; {{Icon status|critical}} Cards come to those who have them.
+=== Cards come to those who have them. ===
-: This is wrong. There is no "golden rule" that players have to keep a certain number of specific cards they need most. See the blog entry [[User blog:Guy Bukzi Montag/Asphalt 8 Myths: Cards Come to Those Who Have Them|Asphalt 8 Myths: Cards Come to Those Who Have Them]].
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This has been proven wrong twice, for engines and for part cards. There is no "golden rule" that players have to keep a certain number of specific cards they need most. See [[V8 drop rate study]] for V8 Engines and the blog entry [[User blog:Guy Bukzi Montag/Asphalt 8 Myths: Cards Come to Those Who Have Them|Asphalt 8 Myths: Cards Come to Those Who Have Them]] for part cards.
-; {{Icon status|critical}} Drivetrain is always limited during events.
+=== Cards for events are always limited. ===
-: This is wrong. The [[frequency]] of Drivetrain cards during events is not significantly different. See [[Drivetrain is always limited during events (Asphalt myth)]]
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This has been proven wrong twice, for engines and for Drivetrain. The game does not grant less cards needed by the featured vehicle during events. See [[V8 drop rate study]] for V8 Engines and [[Drivetrain is always limited during events (Asphalt myth)]] for Drivetrain.
+=== Drop rates are dependent on a player's garage. ===
-; {{Icon status|ok}} Electric Engines are much more frequent than Serial Racing Engines.
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This has been proven wrong. The game does not analyze a player's garage and decrease the drop rates for needed cards to make it harder to pro vehicles. See [[V8 drop rate study]].
-: This is true. Electric and Hybrid Engines are nearly as frequent as common engines. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
+=== Drop rates decrease for recently upgraded vehicles. ===
-; {{Icon status|critical}} V8 and i4 Engine cards are so rare, they shouldn't be of common rarity.
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This has been proven wrong. There is no such algorithm that withholds cards a player may need to further upgrade recently upgraded vehicles. See [[V8 drop rate study]].
-: This is wrong. V8 and i4 Engines are actually among the most granted engines in the entire game. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
+=== Electric Engines are much more frequent than Serial Racing Engines. ===
-; {{Icon status|critical}} V12 Engines are almost impossible to get.
-: This is wrong. The frequency of V12 Engines is typical for legendary engines. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
+: {{Icon status|ok}} This is true. Electric and Hybrid Engines are nearly as frequent as common engines. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
+=== V8 and i4 Engine cards are so rare, they shouldn't be of common rarity. ===
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This is wrong. V8 and i4 Engines are actually among the most granted engines in the entire game. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
+=== V12 Engines are almost impossible to get. ===
+: {{Icon status|critical}} This is wrong. The frequency of V12 Engines is typical for legendary engines. See [[Rarity#Anchor felt drop rates|Rarity: "Felt" drop rates]]
 [[Category:Asphalt myths| ]]