Daily Kit Box

Daily Kit Box; (discontinued)
	"Grants 10 random cards! They can be Common, Rare or Legendary!"
Official info
Last checked	Apr 26, 2020
Description	✔ Correct
Sample space	? Incomplete
Drop rates	? Incomplete
Price	Free
Drop rates	Common: 54.93 %; Rare: 38.26 %; Legendary: 6.81 %
Availability	Reoccurring offer ; – Every 24 hours; – Timer reset: claiming the box
Statistics
Period	Sep 1, 2019 – May 4, 2020
Sample size	3,120 trials (312 boxes); Excellent: Sample size >= 1,000
Mean value	1,019 per card
Dispersion per box
312 Engine cards by name
312 Tech cards by name
2,496 Part cards by type
2,496 Part cards by class
2,496 Part cards by vehicle type

The Daily Kit Box was a Pro Kit Box in Asphalt 8: Airborne. Introduced with the Fast Lane Update, it replaced the Super Racer Kit Box † and had increased drop rates of rare and legendary items.

Since September 2019 (during the Sixth Anniversary Mini Update), Daily Kit Boxes also granted i3 and V12 MPI Engines.

Availability[]

The 2020 Lunar New Year Update removed the box as a permanent offer which makes it practically unobtainable.

Prior to the update, the box was available for free every 24 hours. Contrary to the Finish Line Box, the timer did not count down to 0:00 player's local time, but was only reset when a box was claimed. Therefore players could only get 6 boxes per week, and this only if they claimed the Daily Kit Box directly after it became available.

Design[]

Upon its introduction, the Daily Kit Box looked like the Super Racer Kit Box, but got its green design with the 2019 Spring Update.

Pre 4.2.0	4.2.0 onward

Hidden rules[]

Every Daily Kit Box contains exactly 1 Engine, 1 Tech and 8 Part cards.
The Tech card is either Mid-Tech or Advanced Tech with a ratio of 4:1. No other Tech cards are granted.
The box does not grant any blueprints at all. It does not have the hidden rule of the Super Racer Kit Box which contained at least 1 blueprint per box.

Analysis[]

Statistics[]

Deviation history[]

Showdown Update: Drop rates have been changed, first to Common: 64.34 % | Rare: 28.54 % | Legendary: 7.12 %, following the general changes which increased common and reduced rare cards by around 5 % for most boxes. Later they were changed again to Common: 54.71 % | Rare: 38.17 % | Legendary: 7.12 %. Both changes can be seen in the chart where the lines for common and rare cards first diverge and then slowly apporach the current drop rates.

2019 Spring Update: After constant deviations during the Fast Lane Update, drop rates were changed. The average frequencies now became very stable. While the value for legendary cards was almost exactly like predicted by the official drop rate, the values for common and rare cards clearly differed by 1.8 % from their drop rates. With such a large sample size, outliers or "unusual" streaks cannot significantly influence the final outcome any more—the official drop rates were close to reality, but still not correct.

Cards by rarity in Daily Kit Boxes (pre 4.2

Fast Lane Update: The real percentages of rare and legendary items differed significantly from the official drop rates by 1.5 to more than 6 percent. It is possible that the guaranteed Mid-Tech and Advanced Tech cards were not taken into account for the calculation of the official drop rates. If these cards were taken out of the sample, the values became more correct and only deviated by 2 percent at most. This has obviously been noticed and changed by Gameloft around April 1, 2019 (sample size 350): Before that date, the relative frequencies of common and rare cards had started to stabilize far off the official drop rates, but now they diverged and started approaching the target rates.

Engines[]

None of the opened boxes contained other than exactly 1 engine. This proves the suspected rule of 1 engine per box.

The Daily Kit Box does not grant Hot Wheels and bike engines.

Tech[]

None of the opened boxes contained other than exactly 1 Tech card. This proves the suspected rule of 1 Tech per box. The Tech card always was either Mid-Tech or Advanced Tech.

2019 Halloween Update: The ratio of Mid-Tech to Advanced Tech now seems to tend towards 4:1.

2019 Spring Update: The changes of the update established a stable ratio of 7:3 (70 % Mid-Tech, 30 % Advanced Tech) which has not been changed since. There are two reasons why the lines are less smooth than in the general charts above:

Mathematically, the Tech card is a separate one-card trial within the composed ten-card experiment "Daily Kit Box". While the sample size for the whole box is 4,180 cards, the sample size for the sub-experiment "Tech card" is actually only 418 cards, so a particular outcome has much more effect on the average than after a large number of trials (see law of large numbers).
The sample space of the Tech card experiment only consists of two possible outcomes (Mid-Tech and Advanced Tech), so if one of them occurs, it automatically makes up 100 % of that particular trial which means 0 % for the other. This explains the symmetrical zigzag course of the lines (see Bernoulli trial).

The Tech card in Daily Kit Boxes (pre 4.2

Fast Lane Update: During the first time, the ratio of Mid-Tech and Advanced Tech was somewhat erratic which indicates that the drop rates have been tampered with at least once. The changes around April 1, 2019, (sample size 350) also affected the ratio of Mid-Tech to Advanced Tech which had tended to 2:1, but then diverged again.

Name			D Parts	C Parts	B Parts
Champion Kit Box	3.98	0.37	11.85	13.33	8.06
Daily Kit Box †	7.63	2.37	16.83	16.41	17.02
Engine Box 1-5	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Extra Fusion Box †	0.00	0.00	15.70	16.67	8.94
Finish Line Box	2.71	1.64	8.26	9.28	9.23
Multiplayer Pro Box	0.00	0.00	15.05	15.81	7.96
Optimal Shuffle Box	1.17	0.59	19.92	21.48	26.56
Optimal Split Box	0.40	0.04	22.78	21.73	20.52
Parts Box 1-5	0.00	0.00	21.08	20.57	20.57
Random Box 1-5	0.06	0.03	21.99	21.28	12.79
Specialist Kit Box	0.00	0.00	19.63	11.48	8.52
Starter Fusion Box †	0.00	0.00	21.60	21.36	12.22
Tech Box 1-5	19.54	9.40	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ultra Fusion Box †	0.00	0.00	5.53	5.78	3.27