- a drop rate is the expected value of an item's average relative frequency.
The games themselves do not use the term "drop rate". For example, when an Asphalt 8 player taps on the box info icon () of a Pro Kit Box, the displayed screen only shows percentages without further information on their meaning. This often leads to misunderstandings as players can be tempted to understand the values as probabilities or even guarantees, thinking that a percentage of 25 % for a desired card in a 4-item box should grant 1 card in every box. This is not the case.
Drop rates change frequently. While they are usually stable between two game updates, they will almost surely change when a new update comes out. Pro Kit Boxes on Asphalt Wiki have a "last checked" tag that indicates when the official box data, including drop rates, was checked. Example:
Champion Kit Box ( 500, 16.67 per item) – Last checked: Sep 21, 2019 "Grants 30 Cards, including one V8 Engine card guaranteed. At least 10 cards will be Rare or Legendary!" Common: 56.87 % | Rare: 38.53 % | Legendary: 4.6 % Availability: Permanent offer, Mastery, VIP level reward |
Drop rate and guarantee
Drop rates do not guarantee the same ratio for every single box. As drop rates are average expected values, they are only achieved in the long run, when a large number of boxes is opened (see law of large numbers). Values for a single box can differ significantly.
This is also the reason why WikiProject Statistics has set the "acceptable" sample size for a box to a minimum of 200 cards. Experience has shown that this sample size allows making first predictions and reduces the risk of false conclusions to an acceptable level.
- A drop rate is not a guarantee for a single box. It is a long-term average that predicts the outcome of experiments in the long run with a big sample size.
Boxes with guaranteed items
Name | |||
---|---|---|---|
^{} | Engine Box 1-5 | 10.61 | |
^{} | Champion Kit Box | 4.02 |
Although a drop rate is not a guarantee in itself, it can be more important than guarantees provided in the box description. The Champion Kit Box, for example, officially contains 1 guaranteed V8 Engine, while Engine Boxes don't have this guarantee.
- Players who need only 1 V8 Engine will open the Champion Kit Box first because they can be sure to get the desired engine.
- However, if many V8 Engines are needed, it is recommended to open Engine Boxes first, because in the long run, their drop rate of V8 Engines is higher than that of Champion Kit Boxes.
Note: The game does not provide drop rates for single cards. The values in the table to the right are unofficial results of statistical analyses by WikiProject Statistics.
- In the long run, drop rates are more important than guarantees.
Fixed drop rates
An exception to the above-mentioned rules are dedicated Championship, R&D and EDD boxes. Their drop rates are fixed, i. e. they guarantee the relative frequencies for every particular box.
Example: The R&D Advanced Kit Box (Type 1) of the Lotus Evora Sport 410 R&D contains 10 cards and has the drop rates Common: 90 % | Rare: 10 %. As the only rare card the car needs is Mid-Tech, players can be sure to get 1 Mid-Tech card from every box (10 % of 10 cards).
Unfortunately, the 2019 Spring Update has changed this rule for most new Championship and R&D Boxes:
- The amount of Tech cards in these boxes is now random (so corresponding drop rates show average relative frequencies), while
- Engine and Part cards remain fixed (with guaranteed relative frequencies for every particular box).
Affected boxes are those of the Rezvani Beast X, Pininfarina H2 Speed, McLaren 600LT and probably of all future special events.
Drop rate and probability
The probability of getting a desired card can often be inferred from its drop rate. In many (but not all) cases, drop rate and probability are equal.
The reason for this difference is that the drop rate predicts the result for many repetitions of an experiment (e. g. opening a large number of boxes), whereas the probability predicts the result of one repetition (opening a single box).
Random experiments
An experiment is random if there are no guarantees for certain events. In this case, the drop rate of an event equals the probability that it will occur.
The Random Box 1, for example, does not guarantee any cards, so its content is completely random. Its official drop rate of legendary cards is 2.54 %. This means that in the long run, the amount of legendary cards a player obtains from this box will converge to 2.54 % of all obtained cards. If 10,000 boxes are opened, the number of legendary cards among them will likely be 254, so picking a random card from these 10,000 cards will deliver a legendary card with a probability of 254 / 10,000 = 2.54 / 100 = 2.54 %. This is the same result as if the player opened only one box.
- The drop rate of an item equals the probability of obtaining it when the outcome of the experiment is completely random.
Experiments with guarantees
Many boxes in Asphalt 8 have official or undocumented guarantees.
The Extra Box, for example, has the official guarantee that at least 1 of its 4 cards will be rare. Its official drop rate of rare cards is 34.7 %, but the probability of getting a rare card from one box is 100 % (because it's guaranteed).
- Drop rate and probability are not the same if an experiment includes guaranteed events.
Nevertheless, it is possible to deduce further probabilities from experiments with guarantees if the guaranteed events are excluded: Taking out the guaranteed rare card from the content of an Extra Box makes the experiment completely random again, creating a 3-card box with no guarantees.
- The guaranteed rare card makes up 1/4 = 25 % of all cards. Taking it out will leave the remaining 3/4 = 75 % cards. 34.7 % - 25 % = 9.7 % of these 75 % will be rare. 9.7 / 75 ≈ 12.93 / 100, so the probability of getting an additional rare card is 12.93 %.
- The drop rate of 63.4 % common cards out of 4 delivers 63.4 / 75 ≈ 84.53 / 100 out of 3, so the real probability of obtaining a common card from an Extra Box is 84.53 %.
- Analogously, the probability of getting a legendary card from an Extra Box (drop rate 1.9 %) is 1.9 / 75 ≈ 2.53 / 100 = 2.53 %.
See also
The statistical data on this page is part of WikiProject Statistics. It contains original research which may be incomplete, incorrect or biased. |