Lamborghini Centenario R&D Mini Kit Box

R&D Mini Kit Box; (discontinued)
	"Grants 3 cards for the R&D Lamborghini Centenario!"
Official info
Last checked	Jan 15, 2020
Description	✔ Correct
Sample space	? Incomplete
Drop rates	? Incomplete
Price	300 ( 100 per trial)
Drop rates	Rare: 50.13 %; Legendary: 49.87 %
Availability	Research & Development; (only during the Lamborghini Centenario R&D)
Statistics
Period	Dec 22, 2018 – Jan 15, 2020
Sample size	18 trials (6 boxes); Critical: Sample size < 200
Dispersion per box
6 Engine cards by name
5 Tech cards by name
7 Part cards by type
7 Part cards by class
7 Part cards by vehicle type

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The Lamborghini Centenario R&D Mini Kit Box is a Pro Kit Box in Asphalt 8: Airborne. It has taken over the concept of event Mini Boxes from the McLaren Championships and is available exclusively during the Lamborghini Centennario R&D event.

Unlike the 2018 McLaren X2 Championship Mini Box which grants almost no engine card at all, this box seems to grant at least 1 V12 MPI Engine in (almost!) every box.

Availabilty[]

The box was not offered again in the January 2020 rerun of the event. Therefore it has to be considered as discontinued as there are no other ways to obtain it.

Analysis[]

The drop rate of legendary cards in this box was increased from 45 % to 49.87 % around June 2019. It is unclear whether this means a higher drop rate of V12 MPI Engines. The last box of the sample in the infobox to the right was opened in January 2020 when the box was already discontinued. It contained 1 V12 MPI Engine and 2 Advanced Tech cards and is not listed in the table below.

Probabilities[]

If it was assumed that

the probabilities of Advanced Tech and V12 MPI Engines (both legendary) were equal and
there could be only 1 V12 MPI Engine per Mini Box,

the chance of getting a V12 MPI Engine from a box would be

45 \% : 2 = 22.5 \%.

If a player bought 5 Mini Boxes, the chance of getting at least 1 V12 MPI Engine would be

{\displaystyle \begin{align} &\sum_{k = 1}^{5} 0.225^k \cdot \left (1 - 0.225 \right )^{5-k} \cdot \binom{5}{k}\\ \\ \\ &= 72.04 \%. \end{align} }

The amount $n$ of boxes needed to get at least 1 V12 MPI Engine with a probability of 90 % would be

n \geq \frac{\ln(1 - 0.9)}{\ln(1 - 0.225)} = 9.03 > 9.

Statistics[]

Opening 5 Mini boxes delivered the following results:

V12 MPI	Advanced Tech	Mid-Tech	Tires	Suspension	Exhaust
1		1	1
1	1			1
2			1
1				1	1
	1		1		1

As some players obtained more than 1 engine from a box and nearly every opened box contained at least 1 engine, both of the above assumptions were false which leads to the following conclusions:

While the official drop rate of 45 % for legendary items is correct, the probabilites for V12 MPI Eninges and Advanced Tech are not equal.
The probability of getting at least 1 V12 MPI Engine seems to be around 90 %.

The statistical data on this page is part of WikiProject Statistics.
It contains original research which may be incomplete, incorrect or biased.