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Optimal Shuffle Box
A8Box Optimal Shuffle Box
"Redraw cards up to 2 times! Grants 2 Cards!"
Official info
Last checked Nov 1, 2019
Price -
Drop rates Common: 94.77 %
Rare: 4.57 %
Legendary: 0.66 %
Availability Daily Tasks
Daily ads
Statistics
Period Apr 16, 2019 – Dec 7, 2019
Sample size 670 cards (335 boxes)
Icon ok Good: Sample size >= 600
Common 618 92.24 %
Rare 46 6.87 %
Legendary 6 0.90 %
Blueprints 0 0.00 %
Engines 60 8.96 %
Tech 120 17.91 %
Parts 490 73.13 %
Dispersion per box
min–max Mean
0
Range
2
Common 0–2 1.84
Rare 0–2 0.14
Legendary 0–2 0.02
 
Blueprints 0–0 0.00
Engines 0–2 0.18
Tech 0–2 0.36
Parts 0–2 1.46
A8 icon engine 60 Engine cards by type
Four-Stroke 0 0.00 %
i3 0 0.00 %
i4 22 3.28 %
i5 10 1.49 %
V6 16 2.39 %
V8 2 0.30 %
V-Twin 0 0.00 %
Electric 2 0.30 %
Forced Four-Str. 0 0.00 %
High-Grade 0 0.00 %
Hot Wheels 0 0.00 %
Hybrid 4 0.60 %
Serial Racing 0 0.00 %
Custom Racing 0 0.00 %
Exceptional 0 0.00 %
F12 0 0.00 %
F6 0 0.00 %
Forced-Ind. V8 0 0.00 %
i6 0 0.00 %
Legendary Electr. 0 0.00 %
Rotary 0 0.00 %
V10 0 0.00 %
V12 2 0.30 %
V12 MPI 0 0.00 %
V16 0 0.00 %
W16 2 0.30 %
A8 icon tech 120 Tech cards by type
Early Tech 60 8.96 %
Initial Tech 52 7.76 %
Mid-Tech 6 0.90 %
Advanced Tech 2 0.30 %
Common Tech 0 0.00 %
Rare Tech 0 0.00 %
Pro Tech 0 0.00 %
A8 icon parts 490 Part cards by type
Tires 122 18.21 %
Suspension 126 18.81 %
Drivetrain 124 18.51 %
Exhaust 118 17.61 %
A8 icon parts 490 Part cards by class
Class D 152 22.69 %
Class C 162 24.18 %
Class B 142 21.19 %
Class A 12 1.79 %
Class S 22 3.28 %
A8 icon parts 490 Part cards by vehicle type
Car 490 73.13 %
Bike 0 0.00 %

The Optimal Shuffle Box is a Pro Kit Box in Asphalt 8: Airborne. Together with the A8Box Optimal Split Box Optimal Split Box it has replaced the A8Box Free Box 1 Free Box 1 † and A8Box Free Box 2 Free Box 2 † in the Fifth Anniversary Update.

Players can redraw a pair of cards up to two times which enables them to increase the drop rate of desired cards (e. g. engines) by rejecting all others.

Caution: This renders the statistical results for this box biased. See § Statistics below.

Availability

The Optimal Shuffle Box can be obtained as a random reward from the conventional version of daily ads. Since the Fast Lane Update it is also rewarded for completing a single daily task.

Since the 2019 Halloween Update, the box alternates with the A8Box Compact Shuffle Box Compact Shuffle Box, depending on which version of daily ads is active:

Daily ads streak icon a8 Daily ads
streak version
Daily ads icon a8 Daily ads
conventional version
A8Box Compact Shuffle Box Compact Shuffle Box A8Box Optimal Shuffle Box Optimal Shuffle Box

Relative frequencies:

Daily ads icon a8Daily ads rewards
May 30, 2019 – Nov 30, 2019
1 Double Credits 0 0.00 %
1 Nitro Starter 216 13.09 %
1 Tuning Kit 242 14.67 %
1 Extra Tank 0 0.00 %
1 Optimal Shuffle Box 195 11.82 %
1 Optimal Split Box 211 12.79 %
A8 tokens full Tokens 340 20.61 %
A8 credits small Credits 446 27.03 %
1 Asterion or A8 credits small 150,000 0 0.00 %
Daily Tasks rewards
Apr 10, 2019 – Nov 25, 2019
1 Optimal Shuffle Box 21 3.04 %
1 Optimal Split Box 21 3.04 %
A8 credits small Credits 648 93.91 %

Hidden rules

The box always grants 2 equal cards. It is not possible to obtain 2 different cards.

Description

The German description of the box reads "Enthält 2 gewöhnliche Karten!" (Contains 2 common cards!). This is wrong—the box does grant rare and legendary cards, like in all other language versions. It is probably a badly adapted copy of the description of the A8Box Compact Shuffle Box Compact Shuffle Box which grants only common cards.

Analysis

Probabilities

As the Optimal Shuffle Box always grants 2 equal cards and players can redraw up to two times, the probability of getting desired items is actually higher than suggested by the drop rates in the box info.

Card pairs

As of the 2019 Spring Update, the drop rate of legendary cards in an Optimal Shuffle Box is 0.66 % = 0.0066. In random boxes without guaranteed items, drop rate equals probability, so the chance of getting a legendary card from the box is also 0.0066.

  • In normal boxes, the chance of getting two legendary items (not necessarily the same, but both legendary) would be their probablity multiplied twice, thus 0.00662 = 0.00004356 which is less than 0.01 %.
  • But as the Optimal Shuffle Box always grants a card twice, the multiplication of probabilities does not apply: the chance of getting two equal legendary cards already is 0.66 %.
  • For comparison: As of the 2019 Spring Update, the A8Box Random Box 2 Random Box 2 has a drop rate of legendary items of 2.61 % which is significantly higher than that of the Optimal Shuffle Box. But the probability of obtaining two legendary cards from a Random Box 2 is 0.02612 = 0.00068121 ≈ 0.07 % which is still less than the 0.66 % of the Optimal Shuffle Box.

If players are looking for several cards of the same kind, it can therefore be useful to open Optimal Shuffle Boxes before Random Boxes.

Redrawing

Since the Fast Lane Update, there are 136 different cards in the game. The 2019 Spring Update took away blueprints (63) and bike-specific parts (26) from the box, and it also does not grant i3, V12 MPI and Hot Wheels Engines, so the number of obtainable cards is 44. There are also specific weights assigned to each card, such as legendary cards appearing less often than common ones, or engines appearing less often than parts.

Thus, the chance of getting a specific pair of cards from an Optimal Shuffle Box with the first draw is 1 : 44 ⋅ w, with w being the weight. As w is only a factor that doesn't change during the draws, it can be neglected for now.

  • The chance of getting the desired pair with the first draw is 1 : 442.27 %.
  • If a player chooses to draw again, the card of the first draw will not be offered again, so the chance of getting the pair with the second draw is now the chance of not getting it with the first draw (43 : 44) times the chance of getting it from the remaining cards minus the one taken out with the first draw (1 : 43): (43 : 44) ⋅ (1 : 43)2.27 %.
  • Analogously, the chance of getting the pair with the third draw is (43 : 44) ⋅ (42 : 43) ⋅ (1 : 42)2.27 %.

As the player has three draws to get the pair, the probabilities of each draw add up to

2.27 % + 2.27 % + 2.27 % = 6.81 %

This is much higher than the chance of 2.27 % that the player would have with only one draw.

Conclusion

The official drop rates of the Optimal Shuffle Box only show the expected values for one draw and do not reflect the hidden rule that a card always appears twice and that a player can draw up to 3 times. The statistical outcome if a player is looking for several items of the same kind will therefore be higher than the numbers given in the A8BoxInfo box info. If players have both Optimal Shuffle Boxes and other boxes, they should consider opening the Optimal Shuffle Boxes first.

Statistics

The statistical analysis of the Optimal Shuffle Box highly depends on players' preferences as they can influence the outcome of the experiment by redrawing if they do not want the result of a previous draw. Therefore results for this box are always biased.

Assuming a consensus among players that Engine, Advanced and Mid-Tech cards are more valuable than others, the drawing strategy of this experiment follows strict rules:

  • All Part cards (including rare ones) are rejected in favour of possibly following engines.
  • All Engine, Advanced and Mid-Tech cards are kept without further draw.

As a consequence, the average relative frequencies of Engine, Tech, rare and legendary cards will be higher than predicted by the official drop rates.

Engines

Name

Engines

D
Parts
C
Parts
B
Parts
A
Parts
S
Parts
A8Box Champion Kit BoxIcon excellent Champion Kit Box11.7111.8612.718.8418.5316.36
A8Box Compact Shuffle BoxIcon critical Compact Shuffle Box16.008.008.0014.000.000.00
A8Box Compact Split BoxIcon warning Compact Split Box8.5919.9216.4117.973.911.17
A8Box Daily Kit BoxIcon excellent Daily Kit Box10.0016.1316.0117.7516.0714.05
A8Box Engine Box 1-5Icon ok Engine Box 1-5100.000.000.000.000.000.00
A8Box Extra BoxIcon ok Extra Box6.4415.7216.718.6617.0814.73
A8Box Finish Line BoxIcon ok Finish Line Box44.137.2010.229.6410.229.41
A8Box Multiplayer Pro BoxIcon warning Multiplayer Pro Box10.9115.4515.157.2716.9716.67
A8Box Optimal Shuffle BoxIcon ok Optimal Shuffle Box8.9622.6924.1821.191.793.28
A8Box Optimal Split BoxIcon excellent Optimal Split Box4.1722.3321.6520.291.751.94
A8Box Random Box 1-5Icon excellent Random Box 1-57.7021.9421.4612.056.344.75
A8Box Specialist Kit BoxIcon warning Specialist Kit Box9.5217.6211.908.1019.0512.86
A8Box Starter BoxIcon ok Starter Box8.4721.3021.8311.905.954.10
A8Box Tech Box 1-5Icon warning Tech Box 1-50.000.000.000.000.000.00
A8Box Ultra BoxIcon ok Ultra Box8.005.835.174.1734.0037.00

If a player rejects all cards but engines, it is possible to increase their total drop rate significantly. This strategy makes the Optimal Shuffle Box one of the boxes with the highest engine drop rates. Players should be aware that these are mostly common engines due to the high drop rate of common cards.

Tech

For the same reason, the Optimal Shuffle Box is a good choice for Early or Initial Tech, but not for Advanced or Mid-Tech (see Tech cards by type in infobox).

Parts

The Optimal Shuffle Box has a high drop rate of common Class D, C and B parts. It is not recommended for rare Class A or S parts.

Previous versions

See also

Transparent
WikiProject Statistics 2 small
The statistical data on this page is part of WikiProject Statistics.
It contains original research which may be incomplete, incorrect or biased.

 

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