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Optimal Shuffle Box
Optimal Shuffle Box
"Redraw cards up to 2 times! Grants 2 Cards!"
Official info
Last checked Apr 26, 2020
Description Wrong
Sample space Wrong
Drop rates ? Incomplete
Price -
Drop rates Common: 94.77 %
Rare: 4.57 %
Legendary: 0.66 %
Availability Daily Tasks
Daily ads
Statistics
Period Apr 16, 2019 – May 18, 2020
Sample size 1,024 trials (512 boxes)
Excellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (1,024 cards) Excellent: Sample size >= 1,000
Mean value Fusion Coins 790 per card
Common 926 90.43 %
Rare 84 8.20 %
Legendary 14 1.37 %
Blueprints 0 0.00 %
Engines 82 8.01 %
Tech 180 17.58 %
Parts 762 74.41 %
Dispersion per box
min–max Mean
0
Range
2
Common 0–2 1.81
Rare 0–2 0.16
Legendary 0–2 0.03
 
Blueprints 0–0 0.00
Engines 0–2 0.16
Tech 0–2 0.35
Parts 0–2 1.49
A8 icon engine.png 82 Engine cards by name
Four-Stroke 0 0.00 %
i3 0 0.00 %
i4 26 2.54 %
i5 16 1.56 %
V6 22 2.15 %
V8 4 0.39 %
V-Twin 0 0.00 %
Electric 2 0.20 %
Forced Four-Str. 0 0.00 %
High-Grade 0 0.00 %
Hot Wheels 0 0.00 %
Hybrid 4 0.39 %
Serial Racing 0 0.00 %
Custom Racing 0 0.00 %
Exceptional 0 0.00 %
F12 2 0.20 %
F6 0 0.00 %
Forced-Ind. V8 0 0.00 %
i6 0 0.00 %
Legendary Electr. 0 0.00 %
Rotary 0 0.00 %
V10 0 0.00 %
V12 2 0.20 %
V12 MPI 0 0.00 %
V16 0 0.00 %
W16 4 0.39 %
A8 icon tech.png 180 Tech cards by name
Early Tech 82 8.01 %
Initial Tech 80 7.81 %
Mid-Tech 12 1.17 %
Advanced Tech 6 0.59 %
Common Tech 0 0.00 %
Rare Tech 0 0.00 %
Pro Tech 0 0.00 %
A8 icon parts.png 762 Part cards by type
Tires 198 19.34 %
Suspension 194 18.95 %
Drivetrain 204 19.92 %
Exhaust 166 16.21 %
A8 icon parts.png 762 Part cards by class
Class D 204 19.92 %
Class C 220 21.48 %
Class B 272 26.56 %
Class A 22 2.15 %
Class S 44 4.30 %
A8 icon parts.png 762 Part cards by vehicle type
Car 762 74.41 %
Bike 0 0.00 %

The Optimal Shuffle Box is a Pro Kit Box in Asphalt 8: Airborne. Together with the Optimal Split Box Optimal Split Box it has replaced the Free Box 1 Free Box 1 † and Free Box 2 Free Box 2 † in the Fifth Anniversary Update.

Players can redraw a pair of cards up to two times which enables them to increase the drop rate of desired cards (e. g. engines) by rejecting all others.

Caution: This renders the statistical results for this box biased. See →Statistics below.

Description

The German description of the box reads "Enthält 2 gewöhnliche Karten!" (Contains 2 common cards!). This is wrong—the box does grant rare and legendary cards, like in all other language versions. It is probably a badly adapted copy of the description of the Compact Shuffle Box Compact Shuffle Box which grants only common cards.

Availability

The Optimal Shuffle Box can be obtained as a random reward from daily ads. Since the Fast Lane Update it is also rewarded for completing a single daily task.

Relative frequencies:

Daily ads rewardsDaily ads rewards
May 30, 2019 – Mar 4, 2020
1 Double Credits 0 0.00 %
1 Nitro Starter 302 13.25 %
1 Tuning Kit 328 14.39 %
1 Extra Tank 0 0.00 %
1 Optimal Shuffle Box 263 11.54 %
1 Optimal Split Box 301 13.20 %
Tokens Tokens 474 20.79 %
Credits Credits 612 26.84 %
1 Asterion or Credits 150,000 0 0.00 %
Daily Tasks rewards
Apr 10, 2019 – Apr 27, 2020
1 Optimal Shuffle Box 32 2.78 %
1 Optimal Split Box 37 3.21 %
Credits Credits 1083 94.01 %

Hidden rules

The box always grants 2 equal cards. It is not possible to obtain 2 different cards.

Opening strategy

Players who only open Optimal Shuffle Boxes to get Fusion Coins should redraw and try their luck according to the able below. The box does not grant Vehicle Kit cards or blueprints, but common Engines, for example, as valuable they may be for upgrading a vehicle, only give Fusion Coins 500 when fused:

Fused Card Fusion
Coins
Vehicle Kit Blueprint Engine Tech Part
Common Common Early, Common Class D Fusion Coins 500
Initial Class C Fusion Coins 750
Rare Rare Rare Class B Fusion Coins 1,000
Mid Class A Fusion Coins 1,250
Legendary Legendary Advanced, Pro Class S Fusion Coins 1,500
Extra Fusion Coins 2,000
Prime Fusion Coins 2,500
Superb Fusion Coins 3,000
Festival Fusion Coins 3,500

Analysis

Probabilities

As the Optimal Shuffle Box always grants 2 equal cards and players can redraw up to two times, the probability of getting desired items is actually higher than suggested by the drop rates in the box info.

Card pairs

As of the 2019 Spring Update, the drop rate of legendary cards in an Optimal Shuffle Box is 0.66 % = 0.0066. In random boxes without guaranteed items, drop rate equals probability, so the chance of getting a legendary card from the box is also 0.0066.

  • In normal boxes, the chance of getting two legendary items (not necessarily the same, but both legendary) would be their probablity multiplied twice, thus 0.00662 = 0.00004356 which is less than 0.01 %.
  • But as the Optimal Shuffle Box always grants a card twice, the multiplication of probabilities does not apply: the chance of getting two equal legendary cards already is 0.66 %.
  • For comparison: As of the 2019 Spring Update, the Random Box 2 Random Box 2 has a drop rate of legendary items of 2.61 % which is significantly higher than that of the Optimal Shuffle Box. But the probability of obtaining two legendary cards from a Random Box 2 is 0.02612 = 0.00068121 ≈ 0.07 % which is still less than the 0.66 % of the Optimal Shuffle Box.

If players are looking for several cards of the same kind, it can therefore be useful to open Optimal Shuffle Boxes before Random Boxes.

Redrawing

Since the Fast Lane Update, there are 136 different cards in the game. The 2019 Spring Update took away blueprints (63) and bike-specific parts (26) from the box, and it also does not grant i3, V12 MPI and Hot Wheels Engines, so the number of obtainable cards is 44. There are also specific weights assigned to each card, such as legendary cards appearing less often than common ones, or engines appearing less often than parts.

Thus, the chance of getting a specific pair of cards from an Optimal Shuffle Box with the first draw is 1 : 44 ⋅ w, with w being the weight. As w is only a factor that doesn't change during the draws, it can be neglected for now.

  • The chance of getting the desired pair with the first draw is 1 : 442.27 %.
  • If a player chooses to draw again, the card of the first draw will not be offered again, so the chance of getting the pair with the second draw is now the chance of not getting it with the first draw (43 : 44) times the chance of getting it from the remaining cards minus the one taken out with the first draw (1 : 43): (43 : 44) ⋅ (1 : 43)2.27 %.
  • Analogously, the chance of getting the pair with the third draw is (43 : 44) ⋅ (42 : 43) ⋅ (1 : 42)2.27 %.

As the player has three draws to get the pair, the probabilities of each draw add up to

2.27 % + 2.27 % + 2.27 % = 6.81 %

This is much higher than the chance of 2.27 % that the player would have with only one draw.

Conclusion

The official drop rates of the Optimal Shuffle Box only show the expected values for one draw and do not reflect the hidden rule that a card always appears twice and that a player can draw up to 3 times. The statistical outcome if a player is looking for several items of the same kind will therefore be higher than the numbers given in the A8BoxInfo.png box info. If players have both Optimal Shuffle Boxes and other boxes, they should consider opening the Optimal Shuffle Boxes first.

Statistics

The statistical analysis of the Optimal Shuffle Box highly depends on players' preferences as they can influence the outcome of the experiment by redrawing if they do not want the result of a previous draw. Therefore results for this box are always biased.

Assuming a consensus among players that Engine, Advanced and Mid-Tech cards are more valuable than others, the drawing strategy of this experiment follows strict rules:

  • All Part cards (including rare ones) are rejected in favour of possibly following engines.
  • All Engine, Advanced and Mid-Tech cards are kept without further draw.

As a consequence, the average relative frequencies of Engine, Tech, rare and legendary cards will be higher than predicted by the official drop rates.

Engines

Name

Engines

D
Parts
C
Parts
B
Parts
A
Parts
S
Parts
Champion Kit BoxExcellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (2,160 cards) Champion Kit Box12.2211.8513.338.0618.1015.60
Daily Kit BoxExcellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (3,120 cards) Daily Kit Box †10.0016.8316.4117.0215.5414.20
Engine Box 1-5Excellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (1,452 cards) Engine Box 1-5100.000.000.000.000.000.00
Extra Fusion BoxGood: Sample size >= 600 (828 cards) Extra Fusion Box †6.4015.7016.678.9416.9114.98
Finish Line BoxExcellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (2,070 cards) Finish Line Box45.078.269.289.239.769.42
Multiplayer Pro BoxGood: Sample size >= 600 (930 cards) Multiplayer Pro Box9.8915.0515.817.9617.5317.20
Optimal Shuffle BoxExcellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (1,024 cards) Optimal Shuffle Box8.0119.9221.4826.562.154.30
Optimal Split BoxExcellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (2,476 cards) Optimal Split Box3.7622.7821.7320.521.782.26
Parts Box 1-5Good: Sample size >= 600 (778 cards) Parts Box 1-50.0021.0820.5720.5721.8515.94
Random Box 1-5Excellent: Sample size >= 1,000 (6,597 cards) Random Box 1-57.3121.9921.2812.795.914.99
Specialist Kit BoxAcceptable: Sample size >= 200 (270 cards) Specialist Kit Box9.2619.6311.488.5218.5212.22
Starter Fusion BoxGood: Sample size >= 600 (810 cards) Starter Fusion Box †8.4021.6021.3612.226.053.95
Tech Box 1-5Good: Sample size >= 600 (819 cards) Tech Box 1-50.000.000.000.000.000.00
Ultra Fusion BoxGood: Sample size >= 600 (796 cards) Ultra Fusion Box †8.175.535.783.2734.6736.43

If a player rejects all cards but engines, it is possible to increase their total drop rate significantly. This strategy makes the Optimal Shuffle Box one of the boxes with the highest engine drop rates. Players should be aware that these are mostly common engines due to the high drop rate of common cards.

Tech

For the same reason, the Optimal Shuffle Box is a good choice for Early or Initial Tech, but not for Advanced or Mid-Tech (see Tech cards by type in infobox).

Parts

The Optimal Shuffle Box has a high drop rate of common Class D, C and B parts. It is not recommended for rare Class A or S parts.

Previous versions

See also

Transparent.gif

WikiProject Statistics
The statistical data on this page is part of WikiProject Statistics.
It contains original research which may be incomplete, incorrect or biased.

 

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