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Probability is the measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. Probability quantifies as a number between 0 and 1, where, loosely speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty. The higher the probability of an event, the more likely it is that the event will occur.

A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50 %).

These concepts have been given a mathematical formalization in probability theory, which is used widely in such areas of study as mathematics, statistics, and gambling to, for example, draw inferences about the expected frequency of events.

Probabilities in Asphalt[]

The introduction of Pro Kit Boxes in the Winter Update of Asphalt 8 has added a considerable gambling component to the game. Gambling is the wagering of money or something of value on an event with an uncertain outcome, with the primary intent of winning money or material goods.[1] Seen from this point of view, Pro Kit Boxes are quite close to slot machines: The player invests a kind of in-game currency or real money for a box whose content is more or less uncertain. Neither content nor odds are clearly communicated by the game. The box infos introduced with the Fall Out Boy Update have brought little change because the shown drop rates of common, rare and legendary cards only provide a vague orientation.

Apart from this, box content and the underlying probabilites can change. Most changes pass unnoticed as drop rates usually change by less than 1 %, mostly when a new update is published. The 2019 Spring Update, however, has severely altered the content structure of Pro Kit Boxes by removing bike-specific parts from all boxes but the Rookie Biker Kit Rookie Biker Kit, Advanced Biker Kit Advanced Biker Kit and Special Offer: Bike Box Special Offer: Bike Box. This has been announced by Gameloft,[2] but the simultaneous removal of Blueprints has not been communicated at all.

Other examples of probabilities assigned to game events are the rewards for watching daily ads and completing Daily Tasks.

See also []


  1. Wikipedia: Gambling.
  2. Fabien FromGameloft (2019-03-28).Coming up in the next update of Asphalt 8: Airborne.