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Rarity is a scheme to categorize the relative frequency of cards in random containers (like Pro Kit Boxes or Card Packs) in many Asphalt games. There are mostly three types of rarity, except for Asphalt Xtreme where the rarity is defined by the five classes. Each type of rarity has its own color, generally from some kind of blue (most frequent) over purple to gold (least frequent):

Asphalt 8
Card Name
A8V8Engine Common
A8ElectricEngine Rare
A8V12Engine Legendary
Asphalt 9
Card Name
Lotus Evora Sport 410 blueprint a9 Uncommon
Jaguar F-Type SVR blueprint a9 Rare
Lamborghini Centenario blueprint a9 Epic
Asphalt Xtreme
Card Name
Axcard back d Class D
Axcard back c Class C
Axcard back b Class B
Axcard back a Class A
Axcard back s Class S
Asphalt Nitro
Card Name
V8 engine card an Common
V12 engine card an Rare
Forced-induction v8 card an Legendary

This classification provides nothing more than a rough orientation—the real frequency of cards is determined by the drop rates of the containers shown in the box info. For example, if Asphalt 8 players only open A8Box Ultra Box Ultra Boxes, they will get far more rare than common cards because of the Ultra Box's high drop rate of rare cards. Therefore the drop rates are heavily dependent on which boxes are opened. Besides, drop rates change with time, so there are no constant values for the frequency of common, rare and legendary cards.

Average drop rates

Simple average

However, it is possible to find an approximate distribution by calculating the average of the drop rates for the most common boxes:

  • A8Box Compact Shuffle Box Compact Shuffle BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 100 %
  • A8Box Compact Split Box Compact Split BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 100 %
  • A8Box Daily Kit Box Daily Kit BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 54.93 % | Rare: 38.26 % | Legendary: 6.81 %
  • A8Box Engine Box 1-5 Engine Box 1-5A8BoxInfo Common: 40.4 % | Rare: 18.46 % | Legendary: 41.14 %
  • A8Box Extra Box Extra BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 63.41 % | Rare: 34.69 % | Legendary: 1.9 %
  • A8Box Finish Line Box Finish Line BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 41.31 % | Rare: 28.26 % | Legendary: 30.43 %
  • A8Box Multiplayer Pro Box Multiplayer Pro BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 56.36 % | Rare: 38.63 % | Legendary: 5.01 %
  • A8Box Optimal Shuffle Box Optimal Shuffle BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 94.77 % | Rare: 4.57 % | Legendary: 0.66 %
  • A8Box Optimal Split Box Optimal Split BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 94.77 % | Rare: 4.57 % | Legendary: 0.66 %
  • A8Box Random Box 1-5 Random Box 1-5A8BoxInfo Common: 84.53 % | Rare: 12.93 % | Legendary: 2.54 %
  • A8Box Starter Box Starter BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 84.53 % | Rare: 12.93 % | Legendary: 2.54 %
  • A8Box Tech Box 1-5 Tech Box 1-5A8BoxInfo Common: 70 % | Rare: 20 % | Legendary: 10 %
  • A8Box Ultra Box Ultra BoxA8BoxInfo Common: 21.13 % | Rare: 75.74 % | Legendary: 3.13 %

The simple average of the current official drop rates is:

  • Common: 82.38 %
  • Rare: 26.28 %
  • Legendary: 9.53 %

Note that the simple average assumes an ideal situation where equal amounts of cards are obtained from each box. In real life, a player always opens different amounts of boxes and receives different amounts of cards. In this case, the average has to be weighted.

Weighted average

Example: A player receives

  • 90 cards from Finish Line Boxes (Legendary: 30.43 %) and
  • 10 cards from Optimal Split Boxes (Legendary: 0.66 %).

The simple average for legendary cards from these boxes is

$ \dfrac{ 30.43 % + 0.66 % }2 =\; $$ 15.55 % $.

But this does not take into account that the majority of cards comes from Finish Line Boxes, so the drop rate of legendary cards should be much closer to the 30.43 % of the Finish Line Box than just in the middle. Therefore, the weighted average is used:

$ \dfrac{90 \cdot 30.43 % + 10 \cdot 0.66 %}{100} =\; $$ 27.45 % $

Using official drop rates

The weighted average of the current official drop rates (with the weights based on WikiProject Statistics data of 7,591 cards from the 13 most common boxes since the last changes) is:

  • Common: 76.31 %
  • Rare: 17.2 %
  • Legendary: 6.49 %

This is what players can realistically expect from those boxes, because the values take into account that some boxes are more frequent than others (unfortunately mostly those with "bad" drop rates, hence the lower values for rare and legendary cards). However, these values still assume that official drop rates are correct—which is not always the case.

Using statistical outcomes

Therefore another method is to use the "real" statistical outcomes instead of the official drop rates (that is, the average relative frequencies from the above-mentioned sample of 7,591 cards). In this case, the weighted average is:

  • Common: 76.05 %
  • Rare: 17.24 %
  • Legendary: 6.7 %

Using real statistical outcomes instead of official drop rates has the advantage that wrong official values cannot influence the results. If the sample size is large enough, this is the most reliable method. Small sample sizes, on the other hand, can lead to significant inaccuracies due to statistical deviations.

Statistics

If drop rates are unknown, they can be obtained by statistical means when a representative selection of boxes is observed over a certain period of time. According to the law of large numbers, the long-term average relative frequency of cards will then be the expected value a player will obtain in the long run. Actually, a drop rate is exactly this: the expected value of the average relative frequency.

If drop rates are known, statistics can be used to verify if the drop rates are correct. If so, it is possible to deduce further values the game does not provide, such as drop rates for engines or single cards. The closer the measured average frequency is to the official drop rates, the more precise the predictions for other drop rates will be.

The following chards show the statistical data collected by WikiProject Statistics for the above-mentioned most common boxes during the 2019 Spring Update.

Sample composition by box (2019 Spring Update)
Cards by rarity in common boxes (2019 Spring Update)

It can be seen that the values finally converge to the calculated weighted averages marked by the broken lines. The reason for the significant fluctuations between 1,800 and 2,400 cards is that at this point, a large amount of Optimal Shuffle Boxes and Random Boxes was opened which significantly increased the frequency of common cards at the expense of rare cards. Then a large amount of Ultra Boxes with their high drop rate of rare cards was opened which had the opposite effect.

"Felt" drop rates

The game itself only provides scarce information about the content of Pro Kit Boxes and the underlying probabilities. Box infos with drop rates were only introduced with the Fall Out Boy Update in February 2018, and this still does not say anything about the probabilities of getting card types like engines or even single cards. This experience has lead to various beliefs among players, namely:

  1. "V8 and i4 Engine cards are so rare, they shouldn't be of common rarity."
  2. "V12 Engines are almost impossible to get."
  3. "Electric Engines are much more frequent than Serial Racing Engines; it is hard to believe that they have the same rarity."

The charts below show the distribution of engine cards obtained from the ten most common boxes during the Fast Lane Update and the 2019 Spring Update. The A8Box Champion Kit Box Champion Kit Box is not listed because it guarantees one V8 Engine per box which would distort the proportions.

Engine cards in common boxes
Fast Lane Update (Feb 22, 2019 – Apr 10, 2019)
V8 Engine 32 1.32%
i5 Engine 31 1.28%
V6 Engine 27 1.12%
V12 Engine 24 0.99%
i4 Engine 23 0.95%
Electric Engine 22 0.91%
Hybrid Engine 22 0.91%
W16 Engine 18 0.75%
V-Twin Engine 17 0.70%
V16 Engine 15 0.62%
Four-Stroke Engine 14 0.58%
High-Grade Engine 14 0.58%
Exceptional Engine 13 0.54%
Forced-Induction V8 12 0.50%
i6 Engine 12 0.50%
Rotary Engine 12 0.50%
V10 Engine 12 0.50%
Custom Racing Engine 11 0.46%
F6 Engine 11 0.46%
Legendary Electric Engine 11 0.46%
F12 Engine 10 0.41%
Fourced Four-Stroke Engine 10 0.41%
Serial Racing Engine 8 0.33%
Hot Wheels Engine 7 0.29%
i3 Engine 7 0.29%
V12 MPI Engine 7 0.29%
Engine cards in common boxes
2019 Spring Update (Apr 14, 2019 – June 20, 2019)
i4 Engine 77 1.82%
V6 Engine 66 1.56%
Hybrid Engine 59 1.39%
V8 Engine 45 1.06%
V10 Engine 40 0.94%
i5 Engine 36 0.85%
Electric Engine 35 0.83%
Forced-Induction V8 28 0.66%
V16 Engine 28 0.66%
Exceptional Engine 26 0.61%
V12 Engine 26 0.61%
F12 Engine 25 0.59%
High-Grade Engine 25 0.59%
Rotary Engine 21 0.50%
Serial Racing Engine 21 0.50%
F6 Engine 23 0.54%
i6 Engine 19 0.45%
Custom Racing Engine 18 0.42%
Legendary Electric Engine 18 0.42%
W16 Engine 17 0.40%
V12 MPI Engine 13 0.31%
i3 Engine 8 0.19%
Fourced Four-Stroke Engine 0 0.00 %
Four-Stroke Engine 0 0.00 %
Hot Wheels Engine 0 0.00 %
V-Twin Engine 0 0.00 %
Sample composition by box (Fast Lane Update)
Sample composition by box (2019 Spring Update)

Some seemingly irregular frequencies can be explained with game rules:

  • The V12 MPI Engine and the i3 Engine are only granted by the A8Box Finish Line Box Finish Line Box. During the Fast Lane Update, the box was also the only one to grant Hot Wheels Engines, so it is clear that these three engines are at the bottom of the charts despite their different rarity.
  • According to the charts, bike engines as well as Formula 1 and Porsche engines are less frequent than other car engines. This reflects the smaller number of vehicles using them and is most probably an indication of assigned internal weights that decrease the probability of getting the cards. While bike engines somewhat keep the rarity ratio (rare Fourced Four-Stroke Engines are less frequent than common Four-Stroke and V-Twin Engines), the fact that legendary Exceptional Engines are more frequent then rare High-Grade Engines is a contradiction.

"V8 and i4 Engine cards are rare"

This is wrong. V8 and i4 Engines are actually among the most granted engines in the entire game. However, it is true that the 2019 Spring Update increased the frequency of i4 Engines and decreased that of V8 Engines.

Possible reasons for the belief: V8 Engines are needed in large amounts by a multitude of cars. So despite the high frequency of these engines, upgrading owned cars that need V8s and participating in events for such cars can create a constant shortage. Furthermore, focusing on a needed card while opening boxes usually increases deception when it's not granted.

"V12 Engines are impossible to get"

This is wrong. During the Fast Lane Update, they were even more frequent than many common and rare engines.

It is true that they have become rarer with the 2019 Spring Update, but this only puts them back in the midfield of legendary engine cards.

"Electric Engines are more frequent than Serial Racing Engines"

This is true. Especially during the Fast Lane Update, Electric and Hybrid Engines were nearly as frequent as common engines, while Serial Racing Engines were even rarer than almost all legendary engines.

The 2019 Spring Update brought a change which placed most of the legendary engines at the end of the list, common ones at the top and rare engines somewhere in the middle. The overlapping may be explained with the above-mentioned internal weights that make Formula 1 and Porsche engines rarer than other cards with the same rarity.

Conclusion

Besides the public drop rate changes of most boxes that came with the 2019 Spring Update, there have been apparent internal changes for single cards that corrected the ratio of common, rare and legendary cards to a certain extent. The obvious existence of subgroups for Formula 1 and Porsche engines is still misleading. So is the very wide span of legendary engine frequencies which lets some of them appear as often as common cards and some only half as often.

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The statistical data on this page is part of WikiProject Statistics.
It contains original research which may be incomplete, incorrect or biased.

 

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