FANDOM


DISCLAIMER: The information in this post is based on the assumption that all items without special percentages assigned in the box info have the same chance to appear when a box is opened. I cannot and will not take responsibility for any decision you make because of this post. The values have been calculated with software written on my own, so there is neither a guarantee that the code is error-free nor that there are no typos in the post.

As the 5th Anniversary event slowly comes to an end now, this post tries to provide some help by showing the probability of getting desired items from a certain amount of boxes. It is part I of a series on the maths behind drop rates.

Update: Hidden rules

After opening 20 A8Box Expert Bundle Expert Bundles in a row, I can say that there are definitely additional rules not mentionend in the box descriptions and infos. I didn't ever have one single box without either credits (18) or tokens (2). This changes the probability of "currency" to 100 % and makes it impossible to get 3 engines from one box. I have adapted the following table accordingly. The tokens/credits ratio given in the box info (2.5 % / 22.5 % of 4 items) is consistent with the real ratio of 2/18 in my boxes (10 % / 90 % of 2 items).

When I bought a A8Box Specialist Bundle Specialist Bundle, however, I had neither credits nor tokens in it, so the hidden rule only applies to Expert Bundles.

Overview

If you're not interested in the explanations, here's the overview of all items with their real probability (drop rate) in the "P" columns. Please note that the probabilities of all items counting as "Pro Kit Boxes" are assumed as equal.

Box Price A8BoxInfoAnniversaryBundle Percentages Items
guaranteed
P Items
random
P
A8Box Expert Bundle
Expert Bundle
4 items:
2 guaranteed
2 random
A8AnniversaryCoins 350 25 % Blueprint Boxes
2.5 % Tokens
22.5 % Credits
50 % Pro Kit Boxes
Blueprint AudiR8ETronSE 1-7 BPs Audi R8 e-tron SE 100 % A8Forced-InductionV81 Forced-Induction V8 Engine 7.69 %
A8TokensBig1 Token pack (A8Tokens 50)
or
10 %
 
A8CustomRacingEngine1 Custom Racing Engine 7.69 %
A8CreditsBig 1 Credit pack (A8Credits 6,000) 90 % Legendary Electric Engine1 Legendary Electric Engine 7.69 %
A8Box Engine1 Special Offer – i6 Engine Box 7.69 %
A8Box PartA 2 Class A Part 7.69 %
A8RotaryEngine1 Rotary Engine 7.69 %
A8F6Engine1 F6 Engine 7.69 %
A8V16Engine1 V16 Engine 7.69 %
A8F12Engine1 F12 Engine 7.69 %
A8V10Engine1 V10 Engine 7.69 %
A8V12Engine1 V12 Engine 7.69 %
A8AdvancedTech1 Advanced Tech 7.69 %
A8W16Engine1 W16 Engine 7.69 %
A8Box Specialist Bundle
Specialist Bundle
3 items:
3 random
A8AnniversaryCoins 150 10 % Blueprint Boxes
3.33 % Tokens
23.33 % Credits
63.33 % Pro Kit Boxes
Blueprint MercedesBenzSLK55AMGSE 1 BP Merc.-B. SLK 55 AMG SE 10 %
A8TokensBig1 Token pack (A8Tokens 20) 3.33 %
A8CreditsBig 1 Credit pack (A8Credits 2,500) 23.33 %
Forced Four-Stroke Engine 1 Forced Four-Stroke Engine 7.04 %
A8card V-Twin Engine 1 V-Twin Engine 7.04 %
170824 asphalt8 Four-Stroke Engine 1 Four-Stroke Engine 7.04 %
A8SerialRacingEngine 1 Serial Racing Engine 7.04 %
A8High-GradeEngine 1 High-Grade Engine 7.04 %
A8Mid-Tech 1 Mid-Tech 7.04 %
A8HybridEngine 1 Hybrid Engine 7.04 %
A8ElectricEngine 1 Electric Engine 7.04 %
A8Box PartA 1 Class A Part 7.04 %
A8Box Novice Bundle
Novice Bundle
2 items:
1 guaranteed
1 random
A8AnniversaryCoins 75 87.5 % Blueprint Boxes
12.5 % Pro Kit Boxes
Blueprint BMWM2SE 1 BP BMW M2 SE 100 % Blueprint BMWM2SE 1 BP BMW M2 SE 75 %
A8i5Engine 1 i5 Engine 3.57 %
A8card i4 Engine 1 i4 Engine 3.57 %
A8V6Engine 1 V6 Engine 3.57 %
A8Box PartB 1 Class B Part 3.57 %
Early Tech copy 2 Early Tech 3.57 %
Initial Tech 2 Initial Tech 3.57 %
A8V8Engine 1 V8 Engine 3.57 %

How many coins can I earn?

  • Quests: There are 30 quests with three levels rewarding A8AnniversaryCoins 15, A8AnniversaryCoins 25 and A8AnniversaryCoins 35. If you accomplish all quests you get a bonus reward of A8AnniversaryCoins 750, so the total number of coins you can get from quests is A8AnniversaryCoins 3,000.
  • Ads: Watching ads for 10 days (3 ads per day, average of A8AnniversaryCoins 27.5 per ad) grants additional A8AnniversaryCoins 825.
  • On track: As some quests require a huge amount of finished races, it is also possible to collect about A8AnniversaryCoins 100 per day automatically on tracks when playing races, which would result in A8AnniversaryCoins 1,000.

We'll take this total of A8AnniversaryCoins 4,825 as a base for further calculations.

Can I build an Audi R8 e-tron SE with those coins?

No.

  • First: The car needs 150 blueprints to be assembled. For A8AnniversaryCoins 4,825 you can buy 13 Expert Bundles with each box granting 1 to 7 blueprints. Even if you get 7 blueprints from every single box, you'll need 22 instead of 13 boxes which cost A8AnniversaryCoins 7,700.
  • Second: The chance of getting 7 blueprints from an Expert Bundle is $ \tfrac{1}{7} $ = 14.29 %. However, the chance of getting 7 blueprints 22 times in a row is $ \tfrac{1}{7^{22}} = \tfrac{1}{3,909,821,048,582,988,049} $. This is 1 out of 3.9 quintillions.

If you think of buying coins for real money: Don't. The expected (average) number of blueprints in an Expert Bundle is

$ 1 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 2 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 3 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 4 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 5 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 6 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} + 7 \cdot \tfrac{1}{7} = 4. $

So you'd need 38 boxes which cost A8AnniversaryCoins 13,300—and you can't be sure that this is enough because you can still get less than 4 blueprints per box.

Can I build a Mercedes-Benz SLK 55 AMG SE with those coins?

No.

The car needs 18 blueprints to be assembled. For A8AnniversaryCoins 4,825 you can buy 32 Specialist Bundles with each box having a 10 % chance to contain 1 blueprint.

Your chance of getting at least 18 blueprints from 32 boxes is

$ 1.17\times10^{-8} $ or $ 0.0000000117 % $.

Here are some other probabilities for your information:

Blueprints P
1 96.57 %
2 84.36 %
3 63.33 %
4 39.97 %
5 21.15 %
Blueprints P
6 9.44 %
8 1.17 %
10 0.08 %
12 0.0033 %
15 0.000011 %

Can I build a BMW M2 SE with those coins?

Yes.

The car needs 70 blueprints to be assembled. For A8AnniversaryCoins 4,825 you can buy 64 Novice Bundles that already contain 64 guaranteed blueprints for the car.

As the chance to get a second blueprint from a Novice Bundle is 75 %, it is almost certain that you get more than enough blueprints to assemble the car.

The table shows your chances of getting 6 additional blueprints from various amounts of boxes:

Boxes P
8 67.85 %
9 83.43 %
10 92.19 %
12 98.57 %
15 99.92 %

Other probabilities

Each box is calculated with the above-mentioned A8AnniversaryCoins 4,825.

Expert Bundle

What you can expect from 13 boxes:

Item Amount P Amount P Amount P
A8Box Engine Special Offer – i6 Engine Box 1 64.66 % 2 26.39 % 3 7.26 %
Legendary Engine, Advanced Tech 1 64.66 % 2 26.39 % 3 7.26 %
A8TokensBig Tokens A8Tokens 50 74.58 % A8Tokens 100 37.87 % A8Tokens 150 13.39 %
A8CreditsBig Credits A8Credits 30,000 99.99 % A8Credits 48,000 99.91 % A8Credits 72,000 62.13 %

Specialist Bundle

What you can expect from 32 boxes:

Item Amount P Amount P Amount P
Rare/Motorcycle Engine, Mid-Tech 1 90.33 % 2 66.89 % 3 39.38 %
A8TokensBig Tokens A8Tokens 40 28.87 % A8Tokens 80 2.10 % A8Tokens 120 0.06 %
A8CreditsBig Credits A8Credits 12,500 89.74 % A8Credits 25,000 19.45 % A8Credits 37,500 0.30 %

Novice Bundle

What you can expect from 64 boxes:

Item Amount P Amount P Amount P
Common Engine 1 90.24 % 2 67.11 % 3 40.13 %

How can I calculate this myself?

The maths behind this is quite complex and has to handle large numbers, so I wrote a few functions that do the work for me. I'll explain the mathematical background in my next posts and share the code with you.

It would have taken too much time to write all this down, and as the 5th Anniversary event ends soon, I wanted to share the results first.

Community content is available under CC-BY-SA unless otherwise noted.